Chariots of Iron

I’ve always had a biog problem with Pascal’s Wager, and I am surprised how often it seems to be used. Often this is just a first line of approach by evangelists trying to get me to come around to their side of the fence. Of course a common argument that people use against Pascal’s Wager is that any omniscient god could easily see through a “saying you believe just to get to the good place” type believer.  My issue is this, coming from the non-believer perspective, is that once you get someone over the god-hump how would you then convince them that you’ve got the right bead on the all-mighty? Considering that many religions like to lump those who in other religions in with non-believers (or do I go to a slightly more or less burney-pitchforky-kind of place? because I’m an atheist as opposed to a, for example, Buddhist?).

For the sake of my following, slightly math-related, rant I am going to actually give the faithful a *BIG* benefit of the doubt here and give a deity a 50-50 chance of existence (in all likelihood I’d say that given the total lack of and substantial evidence this chance is several orders of magnitude lower).

So 50% Chance there is a god and I better do what he/she/it says. 50% chance I’m already doing just fine enjoying the very real miracle that is intelligent life (thank you law-of-large-numbers!).

Now how am I to judge the likelihood that any of the “revealed truths” that humankind has ever believed in is the correct one? Once again giving the faithful a big leg-up in this example and ignore all the religions that no one follows anymore, although to be accurate I would have to include these, of course I’d also have to include the chance that some guy in west dumbfuckibad got the real revealed truth but was nailed to a tree by the first person he told… there’s really no way to count those. I’m also not including Scientology amongst the possible “correct” religions, nor small cults, tribalism, all the varieties of paganism, spiritualism, etc… But for the ease of the example I’m going to give those faiths that I do use all an equal chance of being “correct”.

• Christianity
• Judaism
• Hinduism
• Sikhism
• Islam
• Shintoism
• Jainism
• Zoroastrianism
• Cao Dai
• Confucianism
• Taoism

Now We also have to realize that amongst some of these religions there are sects who wholly believe that members of differing sects within the faith are also dammed, here I’m going to pick out some of the more major ones

• Mormonism – Christianity
• Catholicism – Christianity
• Protestantism – Christianity
• Sunni – Islam
• Shiite – Islam
• Orthodoxy – Christianity
• Orthodoxy – Judaism
• Reformed – Judaism
• Conservative – Judaism

And there are even sub-sects of the above… especially when it comes to Christianity, it’s ridiculous.

So we have a final of 18 faiths to pick from (in reality there are so much more and it’s why Pascal’s Wager is the biggest joke in evangelism) this gives you a 2.778% chance of having the “right” religion. Now let’s look at my 50% chance that atheists are right now we can add to that all the works based religions who pretty much don’t care that I don’t believe or who say belief is secondary to just generally being a good person as your key to the big eternal sky/reincarnation/whatevertheheck bliss. This gives us back 22.223% of the “Faith pie”, because as long as I’m not a total bastard I’m pretty much ok. So based on these very basic percentages If I choose whatever faith I’m being evangelized at about I’ve got ~3% chance for all that afterlife wonderfulness, a 22% that I choose your faith and it really didn’t matter, still get the cool afterlife stuff, a 25% chance of burning in hell, and a 50% chance that when I die it’ll pretty much be the same experience as I had before I was born. So instead of the 50-50 the faithful like to spout at you for the good ol’ wager, it’s more like 25%-75% and they’re asking you to take the 25%.

You’re asking me to play spiritual roulette… and every believer is betting. They’re sacrificing their time and money, they’re making other people’s lives miserable all because they think that 00 is where the marble is going to drop.

Sorry, I’m not playing your game.

In truth the chance that any single religious nutbag coming to your door is actually correct about any of these matters is as close to zero as makes no odds, to be fair we’d have to consider every religious belief held by anyone who has claimed the miraculous occurred because of their faith, because that’s all we have, claims.

I’ll take the evidence over the claims anyday.